Gulf Keystone away with the fairies..

I had an operation on Thursday and whilst recovering from my general anesthetic, I started looking at the bulletin boards for good old GKP to see if I could make sense of anything new happening……

Now you might think that a big mistake for many reasons, but for once while still away with the fairies it all became clear. Nobody has a clue and we have so many emperor’s with new clothes on we could create a world record for the number of naked posters at any one time!

If this insults a few people then, sorry. But it’s the truth. Along with our naked emperors we have our boiler room shorting derampers. We have our unhappy campers who lost money on the fall and blame the BOD. We have our optimistic posters positive they will be buying new cars on a £5 takeover bid. We have our “experts” who know more about the oil, drilling and geology than the BOD’s own geologists. We have our armchair football managers who think they could do a better job than the BOD, although I bet most haven’t managed 10 people let alone 100.

This next comment won’t make me popular but if you’ve been in GKP from the 250p days and haven’t sold then you seriously need to look at your investment strategy. You should always have a good and bad exit strategy and if you didn’t sell as it came down, I don’t think you had an exit strategy.

Lots of unsubstantiated accusations floating around, with many of the people complaining about the BOD probably not realising the difficulty of taking an explorer to a producer, particularly in an unstable part of the world, nor do they understand the exploration/production SP cycle, nor do they understand that almost every BOD in the world makes mistakes sometimes.

Make no mistake this is the key 12-18 month period for GKP, if they move successfully to a fully profit making oil producer their SP will be multiple times of what it is now I’d suggest 3-4bn MCAP.

If they don’t then the bond holders will take all and the 30-40p predictions comes true.

The news we need is all around GKP’s ability to make this transformation successfully. Drill results will be helpful IMHO if they add BOPD production to the new facilities as they come on line. They have the funding to create the new facilities, they need the oil drills and they need the political framework for certainty around payment and profit.

Everything else is fluff.

Hope this didn’t offend too many peeps, but the only reason you invest in Oil explorers is for large greedy returns. That includes me. Take the rough with the smooth and accept both the risk and the reward in good nature.